Lifting the Lockdown
Understanding Why the Coronavirus Pandemic is Not Going Away Anytime Soon
As the United States and other countries are facing the reality that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue much longer than first acknowledged, countries are seeking a way for their citizens and businesses to resume a ‘new normal’ until a vaccine or cure can be found. However, before any letup on the lockdown measures are lifted, it is extremely important to understand two factors: Firstly, the public needs to understand the numbers and growth cycle of the virus so that everyone continues to do their part to contain the spread, otherwise numbers will go back up and the cycle will repeat itself. Secondly, effective guidelines must be established so that appropriate measures can be put in place to help mitigate the spread once some of the lockdown restrictions are lifted in a way that is simple to understand by everyone.
Focusing on the Right Data
Instead of focusing on the actual number of new cases or the total accumulation of new cases, both of which can be misleading, we need to look at the daily rate of new cases. If the daily reproduction rate of a virus is >1 (in other words, if the percentage of new cases each day is greater than 100% from the previous day) the virus is in its growth cycle. If the daily reproduction rate is around 1, the virus is stabilized and continuing at approximately the same rate, and if the daily reproduction rate is consistently <1, the virus will eventually go away.
In comparing the daily rate of new cases between seven countries, we can compare the two-week rate of growth from March 13 to March 26 versus the two-week rate of growth from March 27 to April 9, after the lockdowns imposed by most countries began to work. You can see the growth rate generally dropped, with the exception of Sweden where there are no lockdown measures. (Remember, a growth rate of 1 means the virus is holding steady, reproducing at 100% from the day before.)This is good news. It means the lockdown measures are working to keep the virus from growing exponentially and the growth is keeping steady, although not yet decreasing (as the rate has to be consistently be below 1 to decrease).
But now, if we look at the week-to-week comparison over the past two weeks, the rate has not continued to drop by any significant number. The earlier chart clearly shows that our lockdown measures worked to slow our rate of growth, but little is being done to actually decrease our rate of growth to any extent, and so we must assume our numbers will not go down substantially. As the days go on, it's clear we’ve flattened the curve, which means the US is consistently getting about 30,000 new cases per day. This looks like a high number, but we’re not increasing the spread rate anymore – it just took too long to get here. Since few effective new measures of mitigation are planned, there’s no reason to think that number will go down. With a current mortality rate of 3.8%, or 1,100eaths per day, we should continue to get 30,000 deaths per month for the foreseeable future, and more if lockdown is lifted.
Easing of Lockdown Measures
Because of the economic hardship of the lockdown as well as the relatively low number of deaths (the US mortality rate as of April 9this 3.8% of detected cases with an actual number of approx. 17,000 deaths), the United States is looking to get people back to work. We see that despite Sweden’s efforts to voluntarily practice social distancing, numbers are going up dramatically. Austria will lift some of their lockdown measures next week and ask for voluntary social distancing and impose the mandatory wearing of face masks. We can learn from both these countries. Sweden shows that voluntary mitigation is not working, and we will see how Austria fares but there is nothing to indicate their numbers will not climb up.
Density is the Key
So what can America do to be more successful? The United States has extremely varying density rates throughout the country, and different areas will need different guidelines. New York City needed much different laws than rural Pennsylvania, yet the lockdown laws are the same. Many manufacturing sectors are in rural areas. Differing guidelines must be issued based on these 4 different situations:
density at home
density at work
density during transit
density during social situations
This may sound complicated, but once the guidelines are in place it would be clearly understandable. Social distancing and face masks should be compulsory at all times when people are out of the home environment.
Density at home can be based on urban, suburban and rural densities, each broken down further into different levels as needed. Apartment buildings would have a different level than a house, for example. The higher the density, the more staggered and restrictive the guidelines.
Work density would be based on people (workers and consumers) per square foot. Employers should provide at least one mask a day to workers, no matter what type of work, with extra levels requiring differing levels of precautions, disinfecting and other measures depending on the industry.
Transportation needs are based on density and general usage of inhabitants. New York City residents rely much more on public transportation than Southern California residents, for example. Start/end work times in dense areas can be staggered to avoid peak transportation usage. Stores can open and close at staggered times. When New York halved their transportation while 50-60% of people were still going to work, they did nothing to help workers.
Social, non-essential activities would require the most restrictive measures of all, with limitations on social gatherings.
Best Practices
Local and state governments, along with the private sector, are looking for guidance to best help themselves and their country get through this. Guidelines can and should be tailored to each region by state, local and regional governments, based on local needs and customs. A well thought-out series of guidelines, that are subject to change as more data comes in, will help people focus on what they can do to help the country heal.
